热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2022, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (6): 307-309,329.

• 防治研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

2016—2021年厦门市流行性腮腺炎流行特征分析与趋势预测

林艺兰，张怡盾，郭志南   

  1. 厦门市疾病预防控制中心，福建 厦门 361021
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-30 出版日期:2022-12-20 发布日期:2023-01-19
  • 作者简介:林艺兰，女，硕士，主管医师，研究方向：传染病预测预警。E-mail：linyl254@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    福建省卫生健康软科学研究课题（2022RKB016）；厦门市科技计划项目（3502Z20194098）

Epidemiological characteristics and prediction on the trend of epidemic mumps in Xiamen City from 2016 to 2021

LIN Yi-lan, ZHANG Yi-dun, GUO Zhi-nan   

  1. Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen 361021,Fujian Province, China
  • Received:2022-10-30 Online:2022-12-20 Published:2023-01-19

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摘要： 摘要：目的  了解和掌握厦门市流行性腮腺炎的流行特征及变化趋势。方法  从国家传染病监测系统收集2016—2021年厦门市流行性腮腺炎的发病资料，计算并分析不同性别、年龄、时间的发病率变化情况；用年平均变化百分比（annual mean percentage change, APC）评价发病率变化趋势，用GM（1，1）模型预测未来三年发病率。结果  2016—2021年厦门市共报告流行性腮腺炎2 332例，发病率在3.99/10万～13.60/10万之间波动，年平均发病率9.20/10万，男性（10.98/10万）高于女性（7.27/10万），发病年龄集中在1～14岁（1 976例，占84.73%），其中学生和幼托机构儿童1 727例。发病时间呈双高峰分布，发病例数最多在5月和11月。全市发病率年均下降21.61%（t=-3.49，P<0.05）。GM（1，1）模型建模预测值与实际值误差11.14%，预测2022—2024年发病率将进一步下降。结论  厦门市流行性腮腺炎发病率呈下降趋势，但仍处在福建省中上水平，应进一步加强疫苗接种和行为干预。

关键词: 流行性腮腺炎, 流行病学, 灰色模型, 预测, 厦门市

Abstract: Abstract: Objective   To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trend of prevalence of epidemic mumps (EM) in Xiamen City. Methods   The data involved in the incidence of EM in Xiamen area were retrieved from the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 2016 through 2021, and the incidence rate by gender, age and time were calculated and analyzed. The annual mean percentage change (APC) was used to evaluate the trend of EM prevalence, and GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the incidence in the next three years. Results   A total of 2 332 cases of EM were reported in Xiamen from 2016 to 2021, with the incidence fluctuating between 3.99/100 000 and 13.60/100 000. The average incidence rate was 9.20/100 000, and males had higher incidence than females (10.98/100 000 vs. 7.27/100 000). The infection affected most in population aged between one to fourteen years (1 976 cases, 84.73%), in whom 1 727 were students and children in childcare facilities. There were two peaks in the case distribution in different months, with the highest incidence in May and in November. The incidence rate tended to decrease by 21.61% per year (t=-3.49, P<0.05). The average error between the predicted value and the actual value predicted by GM (1, 1) model was 11.14%, and the model indicated further decrease from 2022 to 2024. Conclusion   The incidence of EM in Xiamen tends to decrease, yet still remains relatively higher than the prevalence level of whole province, which suggests that vaccination and behavioral intervention should be strengthened.

Key words: Epidemic mumps, Epidemiology, Grey model, Prediction, Xiamen City

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