热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2025, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (1): 34-39.doi: 10.20199/j.issn.1672-2302.2025.01.007

• 防治研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

2012—2023年安徽省丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征分析

张进(), 娄秋月, 戴色莺, 吴建军   

  1. 安徽省疾病预防控制中心，安徽 合肥 230601
  • 收稿日期:2024-06-07 出版日期:2025-02-20 发布日期:2025-04-03
  • 作者简介:张进，男，硕士，主任医师，研究方向：艾滋病、丙肝防控。E-mail: dajinzhang@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省卫生健康科研项目(AHWJ2022b057)

Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis C in Anhui Province from 2012 to 2023

ZHANG Jin(), LOU Qiuyue, DAI Seying, WU Jianjun   

  1. Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, Anhui Province, China
  • Received:2024-06-07 Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-04-03

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摘要：

目的 分析安徽省丙型病毒性肝炎（简称丙肝）流行特征，为丙肝防治提供科学依据。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2012—2023年安徽省的丙肝病例资料，采用描述流行病学方法对报告病例的时间、地区、人群等分布特征进行分析，使用Joinpoint回归模型分析发病率变化趋势。使用SPSS软件建立时间序列模型，运用专家建模器自动选择最优模型，对2024年安徽省丙肝发病情况进行预测。结果 2012—2023年安徽省累计报告丙肝病例89 722例，年均报告发病率为12.34/10万。Joinpoint回归分析结果显示，2012—2019年丙肝发病率呈上升趋势（APC=12.91%，t=13.58，P<0.01），2019—2023年呈现下降趋势（APC=-5.14%，t=-3.02，P<0.05）。丙肝病例3月份报告最多（8 561例，占9.54%）。报告病例数居前3位的地区分别是阜阳市（14 384例，占16.03%）、芜湖市（9 020例，占10.05%）和宿州市（8 841例，占9.85%）。男性45 219例，女性44 503例，男女性别比为1.02∶1；发病年龄多为40岁及以上（77 076例，占85.91%）；职业以农民为主（54 970例，占61.27%）。时间序列分析的建模结果为系统自动选择的自回归移动平均（autoregressive integrated moving average，ARIMA）（1，1，0）（0，1，1）模型，预测显示2024年安徽省丙肝病例数（95%CI）为7 634（5 174，10 092）例。结论 2012—2023年安徽省丙肝报告发病率呈先上升后下降趋势。阜阳等地是高发地区，男性、中老年、农民群体是高发人群。应结合丙肝发病的流行特点，加强重点地区和人群的疾病监测和宣传教育。

关键词: 丙型病毒性肝炎, 流行特征, ARIMA模型, Joinpoint 回归模型, 安徽省

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis C (Hepatitis C) in Anhui Province for evidences to scientifically prevent and control this contagious entity. Methods Data on hepatitis C registered in Anhui Province from 2012 to 2023 were retrieved through the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Descriptive epidemiologic method was used to analyze the characteristics of reported cases in terms of temporal, regional and population distribution. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze change trends in hepatitis C. A time series model was developed using SPSS software. The Expert Modeler was used to automatically select the optimal model to predict the incidence of hepatitis C in Anhui Province in 2024. Results A total of 89 722 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Anhui Province from 2012 to 2023, with an average annual prevalence of 12.34/100 000. The results of Joinpoint regression analysis showed an increasing trend in the incidence of hepatitis C from 2012 to 2019 (APC=12.91%, t=13.58, P<0.01) and a decreasing trend from 2019 to 2023 (APC=-5.14%, t=-3.02, P<0.05). The highest number of cases was reported in March, accounting for 9.54% (8 561 cases). The top three reported cases were Fuyang City (14 384 cases, 16.03%), Wuhu City (9 020 cases, 10.05%) and Suzhou City (8 841 cases, 9.85%). There were 45 219 male cases and 44 503 female cases, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.02∶1. The victims were in population aged 40 years and above (77 076 cases, 85.91%). Occupation was dominated by farmers (54 970 cases, 61.27%). The modeling results of the time series analysis were the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)(1,1,0) (0,1,1) model automatically selected by the system. The prediction results showed that the potential number (95%CI) of hepatitis C cases in Anhui Province in 2024 was 7 634 (5 174, 10 092). Conclusion The incidence rate of hepatitis C reported in Anhui Province from 2012 to 2023 shows a trend of first rising and then falling. Higher incidence was seen in Fuyang City and other areas. Men, famers, middle-aged and elderly people are the high-risk group. The findings suggest that disease surveillance, publicity and education should be strengthened in key areas and populations in light of the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis.

Key words: Viral hepatitis C, Epidemiological characteristics, ARIMA model, Joinpoint regression model, Anhui Province

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