热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2024, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 133-139.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-2302.2024.03.002

• 肾综合征出血热专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

2018—2023年吉林省肾综合征出血热流行特征及宿主动物监测分析

王俊锋1(), 吴昊1, 李美娜2(), 赵庆龙1()   

  1. 1.吉林省疾病预防控制中心(吉林省预防医学科学院),吉林长春 130062
    2.吉林大学白求恩第一医院
  • 收稿日期:2024-05-12 出版日期:2024-06-20 发布日期:2024-06-28
  • 通信作者: 李美娜,E-mail: lmn_1982@yeah.net;赵庆龙,E-mail: jlcdczql@126.com
  • 作者简介:王俊锋,男,硕士,医师,研究方向:传染病防控。E-mail: mingwang95@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    2023年国家疾控局传染病监测预警队伍建设和人才培养项目

Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and surveillance results of animal hosts in Jilin Province from 2018 to 2023

WANG Junfeng1(), WU Hao1, LI Meina2(), ZHAO Qinglong1()   

  1. 1. Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jilin Provincial Academy of Preventive Medicine), Changchun 130062, Jilin Province, China
    2. The First Bethune Hospital of Jilin University
  • Received:2024-05-12 Online:2024-06-20 Published:2024-06-28
  • Contact: LI Meina, E-mail: lmn_1982@yeah.net;ZHAO Qinglong, E-mail: jlcdczql@126.com

摘要:

目的 分析吉林省肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, HFRS)流行病学特征并对2024年吉林省HFRS发病趋势进行预测,为该病的防控提供参考。方法 收集2018—2023年中国疾病预防控制信息系统中吉林省HFRS的发病数据及吉林省各监测点的宿主动物监测数据,采用描述流行病学方法对其进行分析。通过建立自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型,对2018—2023年吉林省HFRS病例数进行拟合并预测2024年发病情况。结果 2018—2023年吉林省共报告HFRS病例1 993例,其中2018年病例数和发病率均为最高(578例,2.13/10万),之后总体呈下降趋势,2023年病例数和发病率最低(158例,0.67/10万)。发病高峰为4—6月(635例,占31.86%)和10—12月(724例,占36.33%)。共报告男性1 511例,女性482例,性别比为3.13∶1;各年龄组人群均有病例报告,以30~64岁年龄组为主(1 464例,占73.46%);职业分布以农民为主(1 242例,占62.32%)。各市(州)均有病例报告,累计报告病例数前3位的地区为通化市(440例,占22.08%)、白城市(357例,占17.91%)和延边朝鲜族自治州(335例,占16.81%)。春季居民区累计鼠密度前3位的监测点分别为珲春市(5.26%)、梨树县(4.36%)、双阳区(3.81%);野外累计鼠密度前3位的监测点分别为珲春市(5.55%)、磐石市(4.00%)、双阳区(3.47%)。秋季居民区累计鼠密度前3位的监测点分别为珲春市(4.43%)、双阳区(4.09%)、抚松县(3.84%);野外累计鼠密度前3位的监测点分别为珲春市(6.84%)、双阳区(4.21%)、磐石市(4.00%)。捕获鼠类以褐家鼠和黑线姬鼠为主。时间序列分析结果显示ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12能够较好地拟合和预测吉林省HFRS发病情况(MAE=6.56,MRE=-0.16%),2024年预测月均发病数为7例。结论 吉林省HFRS发病率总体呈下降趋势,优势鼠种为褐家鼠和黑线姬鼠,2024年发病数预计低于2023年。有关部门今后应持续做好HFRS常规监测及预警工作。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, ARIMA模型, 时间序列分析, 宿主动物, 吉林省

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and predict the incidence trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Jilin Province for evidence in prevention and control of thin acute infections in 2024. Methods The incidence data of HFRS in Jilin Province from 2018 to 2023 were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the monitoring data on the host animals in Jilin Province were also obtained. Then all data were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological method. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established, by which the number of cases of HFRS in Jilin Province from 2018 to 2023 was fitted to predict the incidence of HFRS in the next year. Results A total of 1 993 cases of HFRS were reported Jilin Province from 2018 to 2023, during which the number of cases (578 cases) and the incidence (2.13/100 000) were the highest in 2018, and then presented with overall downward trend. The number of cases (158 cases) and the incidence (0.67/100 000) were the lowest in 2023. Annual reported cases peaked at April to June (635 cases, 31.86%) and October to December (724 cases, 36.33%). Of the reported cases, 1 511 were males, and 482 females, with a male to female ration of 3.13∶1. The incidences were reported in all age groups, with the population aged 30-64 years being dominant (1 464 cases, 73.46%), and the farmers were most affected by occupational distribution (1 242 cases, 62.32%). The cases were reported in all cities (prefectures), and the top three regions in terms of the cumulative number of reported cases were Tonghua (440 cases, 22.08%), Baicheng (357 cases, 17.91%) and Yanbian (335 cases, 16.81%). The top three monitoring sites with the highest cumulative rat density in residential areas in spring were Hunchun City (5.26%), Lishu County (4.36%) and Shuangyang District (3.81%), and the top three monitoring sites with the highest cumulative rat density in the wild were Hunchun City (5.55%), Panshi City (4.00%) and Shuangyang District (3.47%). The top three monitoring sites with the highest cumulative rat density in residential areas in autumn were Hunchun City (4.43%), Shuangyang District (4.09%) and Fusong County (3.84%). The top three monitoring sites with the highest cumulative rat density in the wild were Hunchun City (6.84%), Shuangyang District (4.21%) and Panshi City (4.00%). The captured rodents were mainly Rattus norvegicus and Apodemus agrarius. The results of time series analysis showed that ARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 could better fit and predict the number of HFRS in Jilin Province (MAE=6.56, MRE=-0.16%). The average monthly number of incidence predicted in 2024 would be 7 cases. Conclusion The incidence of HFRS in Jilin Province is generally on a downward trend, the dominant rat species responsible for the transmission vectors are Rattus norvegicus and Apodemus agrarius. The monthly 2024 incidence is expected to be lower than the 2023. In the future, relevant health sections should continue to focus on monitoring and early warning of this acute infections.

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, ARIMA model, Time series analysis, Host animal, Jilin Province

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