热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2026, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 19-24.doi: 10.20199/j.issn.1672-2302.2026.01.004

• 其他感染性腹泻防控专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

2015—2024年辽宁省其他感染性腹泻流行特征及空间聚集性分析

王周超(), 金美玲, 宋歌, 孙思浓, 毛玲玲, 孙英伟()   

  1. 辽宁省疾病预防控制中心， 辽宁沈阳 110005
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-25 出版日期:2026-02-20 发布日期:2026-03-31
  • 通信作者: 孙英伟，E-mail: 378335350@qq.com
  • 作者简介:王周超，女，本科，副主任医师，研究方向：肠道传染病防控。E-mail: 13709859983@163.com

Epidemic characteristics and spatial autocorrelation of other infectious diarrhea in Liaoning Province from 2015 to 2024

WANG Zhouchao(), JIN Meiling, SONG Ge, SUN Sinong, MAO Lingling, SUN Yingwei()   

  1. Liaoning Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenyang 110005, Liaoning Province, China
  • Received:2025-11-25 Online:2026-02-20 Published:2026-03-31
  • Contact: SUN Yingwei, E-mail: 378335350@qq.com

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摘要：

目的 分析辽宁省其他感染性腹泻流行特征及空间聚集性，为其他感染性腹泻的防控提供参考。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病监测系统收集2015—2024年辽宁省其他感染性腹泻的发病数据，运用Joinpoint回归模型分析发病率时间趋势，运用空间自相关分析及SaTScan时空扫描分析探究空间聚集性。结果 2015—2024年辽宁省共报告其他感染性腹泻156 255例，年均报告发病率为36.24/10万，各年报告发病率为16.55/10万~51.93/10万。Joinpoint分析显示2015—2018年报告发病率无明显趋势（APC=5.49%，95%CI：-4.34%~24.54%，P>0.05），2018—2022年呈下降趋势（APC=-23.95%，95%CI：-36.31%~-17.79%，P<0.05），2022—2024年呈上升趋势（APC=53.27%，95%CI：19.18%~90.59%，P<0.05）。人群分布上，男性81 479例、女性74 776例；0~4岁组发病率最高（322.65/10万）；职业以散居儿童（40 425例，占25.87%）为主。地区分布中，年均报告发病率居前3位的是本溪市（144.24/10万）、盘锦市（78.80/10万）、阜新市（69.61/10万）。空间自相关分析显示，2015—2024年辽宁省各年其他感染性腹泻发病率Moran’s I为0.229~0.413，各年度均存在空间正相关关系（P均<0.05）；聚集类型以“高-高”“低-低”聚集为主，“高-高”聚集区主要集中在本溪市、沈阳市、抚顺市等的部分县区。时空扫描探测到1个一类聚集区和12个二类聚集区，一类聚集区覆盖时间为2015—2019年，覆盖范围与“高-高”聚集区高度重合。结论 2015—2024年辽宁省其他感染性腹泻存在时空聚集性，高发人群为5岁以下儿童和农民，需针对重点地区、重点人群制定精准防控措施，强化监测预警。

关键词: 其他感染性腹泻, 流行特征, 空间聚集性, 辽宁省

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of other infectious diarrhea in Liaoning Province from 2015 to 2024 for a reference in prevention and control of this disease. Methods The data on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Liaoning Province from 2015 to 2024 were obtained through the Infectious Disease Surveillance System under the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends of incidence rate, and spatial autocorrelation analysis and SaTScan spatio-temporal scan statistic were used to examine the spatial aggregation. Results A total of 156 255 cases of other infectious diarrhea were reported in Liaoning Province from 2015 to 2024, with an average annual incidence rate of 36.24/100 000. The yearly incidence rate fluctuated between 16.55/100 000 and 51.93/100 000 from 2015 to 2024. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated no clear trend for the incidence rate between 2015 and 2018 (APC=5.49%, 95%CI：-4.34% to 24.54%, P>0.05). The reported incidence rate presented a downward trend during 2018 and 2022 (APC=-23.95%, 95%CI：-36.31% to -17.79%, P<0.05), yet an upward trend from 2022 to 2024 (APC=53.27%, 95%CI：19.18% to 90.59%, P<0.05). By population distribution, 81 479 cases were males, and 74 776 females. The 0-4 age group had the highest incidence rate (322.65/100 000), and the children living at home were most reported (n=40 425; 25.87%). In terms of regional distribution, the top three cities were Benxi (144.24/100 000), Panjin (78.80/100 000), and Fuxin (69.61/100 000) by average annual reported incidence. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the annual Moran’s I index ranged from 0.229 to 0.413 between 2015 and 2024, with a positive spatial correlation observed in each year (all P<0.05). The clustering patterns were dominated by “high-high” and “low-low” clusters. The “high-high” clusters were mainly concentrated in some counties and districts of cities such as Benxi, Shenyang and Fushun. Spatio-temporal scan detected 1 type Ⅰ cluster and 12 type Ⅱ clusters, and the type Ⅰ cluster was seen during 2015 and 2019, highly consistent with the “high-high” clusters in coverage area. Conclusion Other infectious diarrhea in Liaoning Province from 2015 to 2024 presented spatiotemporal clustering. The high-risk populations were children aged 4 years and below and farmers. Our findings suggest that following prevention and control efforts should be targeted at the key regions and populations, as well as strengthening surveillance and early warning.

Key words: Other infectious diarrhea, Epidemiological characteristics, Spatial autocorrelation, Liaoning Province

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