Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region for a scientific basis for the formulating prevention and control measures in the local area. Methods The case data of other infectious diarrhea in Xinjiang from 2015 to 2024 were obtained from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal, regional and population distribution as well as the pathogens in the reported cases. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trend of incidence. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model was constructed to predict the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Xinjiang in 2025. Results From 2015 to 2024, a total of 111 773 cases of other infectious diarrhea were reported in Xinjiang, with an average annual incidence rate of 44.34 per 100 000. The Joinpoint regression model showed that the overall trend of the reported incidence rate from 2015 to 2024 was not statistically significant (AAPC=-2.97%, 95%CI: -11.22%-9.83%, t=-1.27, P>0.05), yet a downward trend from 2015 to 2022 was observed (APC=-8.15%, 95%CI: -15.28%-0.41%, t=-2.70, P<0.05). There were 61 812 male cases and 49 961 female cases, with a sex ratio of 1.24∶1. The average annual reported incidence rates for males and females were 46.29 and 39.98 per 100 000, respectively. The age group mainly concentrated in those 5 years old and under (n=73 475; 65.74%). The majority of the cases were in children living at home (n=69 254; 61.96%),followed by farmers (n=14 718; 13.17%). The cases were most reported from May to August (n=53 656; 48.00%). The top three regions with the highest reported incidence rates were Urumqi City (85.34 per 100 000), Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture (69.56 per 100 000), and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture (59.78 per 100 000). A total of 20 110 cases were diagnosed with a clear pathogen, with viruses being the major pathogen (18 855 cases, 93.76%), in which rotavirus infection accounted for 82.09% (16 508 cases). The modeling result of the time series analysis was the ARIMA (3, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model, and the predicted number of reported cases in 2025 (95%CI) was 11 440 (2 966-19 886). Conclusion From 2015 to 2024, the reported incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in Xinjiang showed an overall trend of decreasing initially and then increasing. The high-incidence season was summer, and infants and children 5 years old and under were the key population for prevention and control. It is necessary to strengthen monitoring and take targeted prevention and control measures for key these population groups.

Key words: Other infectious diarrhea, Epidemiological characteristics, Joinpoint regression model, Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region