Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of varicella in Changsha City from 2014 to 2023

doi:10.20199/j.issn.1672-2302.2025.04.007

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of varicella in Changsha area for evidences in following prevention and control of this infection. Methods The case data on varicella registered in Changsha area from 2014 to 2023 were obtained through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and descriptively analyzed regarding the temporal, regional, and population distribution. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze incidence trends, and the SEIR model was applied for analysis of the transmission dynamics. Results A total of 74 146 varicella cases were reported in Changsha are from 2014 to 2023. The average annual incidence rate was 87.57 per 100 000 population. From 2014 to 2018, the incidence showed an upward trend, with an annual percentage change (APC) of 24.07% (t=2.71, P=0.042), followed by a downward trend from 2018 to 2023 (APC=-23.79%, t=-4.98, P=0.004). The main peak for the infection occurred from October to January (38 268 cases, 51.61%) and the secondary peak emerged between April and July (23 551 cases, 31.76%). The average annual reported incidence rate was lower in central urban area (85.34/100 000) than that in surrounding counties (cities) (90.31/100 000). The cases were dominated by population in the 0-14 age group (55 894 cases, 75.38%), and the average annual reported incidence rate was higher in males than in females (91.18/100 000 vs. 83.77/100 000). Occupational distribution indicated that school students (36 555 cases, 49.30%), children in kindergartens (16 811 cases, 22.67%) and those living at home (10 317 cases, 13.91%) were the most affected groups. Primary schools were the major outbreak settings (75 events, 76.53%). The mean daily reproduction number (R_t) during epidemic peaks was 1.548 (ascending phase) and 0.672 (descending phase), with the highest annual mean daily R_t observed in 2023 (1.124) and the lowest in 2022 (0.990). Conclusion Varicella incidence in Changsha area still remains at risk of high endemicity. In order to mitigate transmission, we recommend that comprehensive health education in schools and increased varicella vaccination coverage are urgently needed.

Key words: Varicella, Epidemiological characteristics, Joinpoint regression analysis, Transmission dynamics model, Changsha city

CLC Number:

R511.5，R181.3

ZHAO Jin, ZHOU Yinzhu, QIU Jinsong, CHEN Shuilian. Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of varicella in Changsha City from 2014 to 2023[J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2025, 23(4): 229-234.

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地区	报告病例数（例）	年均报告发病率（/10万）
中心城区	39 892	85.34
岳麓区	12 719	113.22
雨花区	9 655	99.69
天心区	5 514	83.47
芙蓉区	3 966	67.49
望城区	4 086	62.74
开福区	3 952	57.83
周边县（市）	34 254	90.31
浏阳市	16 248	116.78
长沙县	12 053	107.40
宁乡市	5 953	46.53

年龄（岁）	男性		女性		合计
年龄（岁）	报告病例数（例）	年均报告发病率（/10万）	报告病例数（例）	年均报告发病率（/10万）	报告病例数（例）	年均报告发病率（/10万）
0~4	9 761	411.03	8 184	386.37	17 945	399.41
5~9	14 529	598.59	11 858	551.70	26 387	576.57
10~14	6 375	287.73	5 187	264.58	11 562	276.86
15~19	3 937	189.84	2 862	144.45	6 799	167.67
20~24	1 507	42.06	1 832	52.98	3 339	47.43
25~29	1 345	38.72	2 006	56.85	3 351	47.86
30~34	1 246	34.35	1 814	51.61	3 060	42.85
35~39	583	18.04	635	20.63	1 218	19.31
40~44	155	4.68	119	3.78	274	4.24
45~49	40	0.95	48	1.20	88	1.07
50~54	9	0.28	27	0.92	36	0.59
55~59	20	0.70	9	0.33	29	0.52
≥60	32	0.47	26	0.39	58	0.43
合计	39 539	91.18	34 607	83.77	74 146	87.57

职业	报告病例数（例）	构成比（%）
学生	36 555	49.30
幼托儿童	16 811	22.67
散居儿童	10 317	13.91
家务及待业	2 111	2.85
商业服务	1 783	2.40
农民	1 663	2.24
干部职员	798	1.08
工人	787	1.06
教师	759	1.02
医务人员	465	0.63
餐饮食品业	153	0.21
公共场所服务员	79	0.11
其他	1 865	2.52
合计	74 146	100.00

学校类型	事件数（起）	波及或暴露人口数（人）	报告病例数（例）	罹患率（%）
城市幼儿园	3	897	76	8.47
城市小学	30	77 256	1 041	1.35
城市初中	2	2 583	56	2.17
城市高中	1	2 512	20	0.80
农村幼儿园	7	2 697	155	5.75
农村小学	45	37 445	1 467	3.92
农村初中	2	1 035	45	4.35
农村高中	1	1 107	13	1.17
县镇小学	4	7 856	136	1.73
中等职业学校	1	783	80	10.22
其他学校	2	3 659	75	2.05
合计	98	137 830	3 164	2.30

年份	R²	R_t
2014	0.956	1.096
2015	0.911	1.072
2016	0.888	1.042
2017	0.924	1.056
2018	0.960	1.077
2019	0.961	1.016
2020	0.933	1.005
2021	0.871	1.017
2022	0.930	0.990
2023	0.959	1.124
平均	0.945	1.049