热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2026, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 177-182.doi: 10.20199/j.issn.1672-2302.2026.03.009

• 防治研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010—2025年武汉市老年人群肺结核流行特征及变化趋势

鲁周琴1(), 张正斌1, 吴刚1, 王晓君1, 王坚杰1, 周美兰1, 李涛2(), 杜昕2, 李月华1()   

  1. 1 武汉市肺科医院（武汉市结核病防治所）， 湖北武汉 430030
    2 中国疾病预防控制中心（中国预防医学科学院）结核病预防控制中心
  • 收稿日期:2026-02-12 出版日期:2026-06-20 发布日期:2026-07-31
  • 通信作者: 李涛，E-mail: litao1@chinacdc.cn；李月华，E-mail: 664748060@qq.com
  • 作者简介:鲁周琴，女，硕士，主管医师，研究方向：结核病流行病学。E-mail: 759207499@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC2311204)

Epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly population in Wuhan from 2010 to 2025

LU Zhouqin1(), ZHANG Zhengbin1, WU Gang1, WANG Xiaojun1, WANG Jianjie1, ZHOU Meilan1, LI Tao2(), DU Xin2, LI Yuehua1()   

  1. 1 Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan Institute for Tuberculosis Control), Wuhan 430030, Hubei Province, China
    2 National Center for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine)
  • Received:2026-02-12 Online:2026-06-20 Published:2026-07-31
  • Contact: LI Tao, E-mail: litao1@chinacdc.cn; LI Yuehua, E-mail: 664748060@qq.com

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摘要：

目的 分析武汉市60岁及以上老年人群肺结核流行特征及变化趋势，为优化结核病防控策略提供依据。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2010—2025年武汉市老年人群肺结核病例资料，采用描述性流行病学方法分析其三间分布特征，利用Joinpoint回归模型分析总体及不同特征的发病变化趋势。结果 2010—2025年武汉市60岁及以上老年人群肺结核31 038例，年均报告发病率为108.00/10万，报告发病率从2010年的125.80/10万下降至2025年的111.53/10万。3—10月报告病例数相对较多（21 944，占70.70%）。男性报告发病率（173.89/10万）高于女性（56.71/10万），80~84岁人群报告发病率最高（145.60/10万），远城区报告发病率（138.26/10万）高于中心城区（87.89/10万），离退休人员报告病例数占比最高（10 830例，占34.89%）。Joinpoint分析结果显示，2010—2025年武汉市老年人群肺结核报告发病率总体趋势无统计学意义（AAPC=-0.94%，95%CI：-2.05%~0.18%，t=-1.64，P>0.05），其中2010—2020年呈下降趋势（APC=-3.08%，95%CI：-4.13%~-2.03%，t=-6.36，P<0.001），2020—2025年呈上升趋势（APC=3.49%，95%CI：0.33%~6.77%，t=2.43，P<0.05）；老年人群病原学阳性肺结核报告发病率总体趋势无统计学意义（AAPC=0.20%，95%CI：-1.84%~2.28%，t=0.19，P>0.05），其中2010—2016年呈下降趋势（APC=-6.80%，95%CI：-10.89%~-2.53%，t=-3.46，P<0.05），2016—2025年呈上升趋势（APC=5.15%，95%CI：2.64%~7.73%，t=4.57，P<0.001）。男性报告发病率总体呈下降趋势（AAPC=-3.20%，95%CI：-4.32%~-2.07%，t=-5.99，P<0.001）。60~64岁、70~74岁人群报告发病率总体均呈下降趋势（AAPC=-2.30%、-2.43%，95%CI：-4.43%~-1.54%，-3.66%~-1.19%，t=-4.38、-4.18，P均<0.001）。中心城区报告发病率总体呈上升趋势（AAPC=6.41%，95%CI：4.37%~8.50%，t=6.28，P<0.001）。结论 武汉市老年人群肺结核疫情依然严峻，要重点关注男性及远城区居民，通过强化主动筛查、规范诊疗与随访管理，针对性降低老年结核病疫情。

关键词: 肺结核, 老年人群, 流行特征, 武汉市

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB) in the elderly aged 60 and above in Wuhan City, for evidences to optimize the tuberculosis prevention and control strategies targeting. Methods Data on the elderly PTB cases reported in Wuhan City from 2010 to 2025 were retrieved through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the patterns of temporal, regional and demographic distribution.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the overall incidence trend and stratified trend grouped by different demographic characteristics. Results From 2010 to 2025, a total of 31 038 cases of PTB were identified among the elderly aged 60 and above in Wuhan City, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 108.00 per 100 000 population. The reported incidence rate was decreased from 125.80/100 000 in 2010 to 111.53/100 000 in 2025. The number of reported cases was relatively high from March to October (n=21 944; 70.70%). The reported incidence rate was higher in males than in females (173.89/100 000 vs. 56.71/100 000), and was the highest in 80-84 years age group (145.60/100 000). Additionally, the reported incidence rate was higher in the population living in the remote urban area than those living in the central urbran districts (138.26/100 000 vs. 87.89/100 000), and retirees constituted the highest proportion of cases (n=10 830; 34.89%). Joinpoint analysis results showed that the overall trend of the reported incidence rate of PTB among the elderly in Wuhan City from 2010 to 2025 had no statistical significance (AAPC=-0.94%, 95%CI: -2.05% to 0.18%, t=-1.64, P>0.05). The incidence presented a decline trend from 2010 to 2020 (APC=-3.08%, 95%CI: -4.13% to -2.03%, t=-6.36, P<0.001), followed by an upward trend from 2020 to 2025 (APC=3.49%, 95%CI: 0.33% to 6.77%, t=2.43, P<0.05). The overall trend of the reported incidence rate of bacteriologically positive PTB among the elderly was not statistically significant (AAPC=0.20%, 95%CI:-1.84% to 2.28%, t=0.19, P>0.05), among which there was a downward trend from 2010 to 2016 (APC=-6.80%, 95%CI: -10.89% to -2.53%, t=-3.46, P<0.05), and an upward trend from 2016 to 2025 (APC=5.15%, 95%CI: 2.64% to 7.73%, t=4.57, P<0.001). The overall reported incidence rate of PTB among males showed a downward trend (AAPC=-3.20%, 95%CI: -4.32% to -2.07%, t=-5.99, P<0.001), and among those in the 60-64 and 70-74 years age groups presented a downward trend (AAPC=-2.30%, -2.43%, 95%CI: -4.43% to -1.54%, -3.66% to -1.19%, t=-4.38, -4.18, both P<0.001). The overall reported incidence rate in the elderly population living in the central urban area exhibited an overall upward trend (AAPC=6.41%, 95%CI: 4.37% to 8.50%, t=6.28, P<0.001). Conclusion The PTB epidemic among the elderly in Wuhan City remains severe. Special attention should be paid to male residents and those living in outer suburban areas. Targeted measures, including strengthened active screening, standardized diagnosis and treatment, as well as follow-up management, are recommended to curb the tuberculosis epidemic among the elderly.

Key words: Pulmonary tuberculosis, Elderly population, Epidemiological characteristics, Wuhan City

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