热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2025, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (5): 283-288.

• 调查研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

2011—2022年长沙市肾综合征出血热流行特征及时空聚集性

段陈林1, 2，陈水连1，邱劲松1，石凌1，王智宇1，周银柱1   

  1. 1. 长沙市疾病预防控制中心，湖南 长沙 410000； 2. 中国疾病预防控制中心现场流行病学培训项目
  • 收稿日期:2024-12-16 出版日期:2025-10-20 发布日期:2025-11-28
  • 通信作者: 周银柱， E-mail: 1047912196@qq.com
  • 作者简介:段陈林，男，硕士，主管医师，研究方向：急性传染病预防控制。E-mail: 767201634@qq.com

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha City from 2011 to 2022

DUAN Chenlin1, 2, CHEN Shuilian1, QIU Jinsong1, SHI Ling1, WANG Zhiyu1, ZHOU Yinzhu1   

  1. 1. Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410000, Hunan Province, China; 
    2. Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Received:2024-12-16 Online:2025-10-20 Published:2025-11-28

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摘要： 目的 分析长沙市肾综合征出血热（hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, HFRS）的流行特点和时空分布特征，为精准防控提供科学依据。方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2011—2022年长沙市HFRS病例资料，采用描述流行病学方法分析HFRS病例的三间分布特征，使用ArcGIS 10.8软件分析HFRS病例的空间自相关性，使用SaTScan 10.1软件分析时空聚集性。结果 2011—2022年长沙市累计报告HFRS病例1 519例，发病率为1.41/10万；死亡9例，死亡率为0.01/10万。时间分布存在4—6月和11月—次年1月2个流行高峰。病例年龄以40～59岁为主（占50.89%，773/1 519），职业以农民为主（占71.43%，1 085/1 519），性别以男性为主（占71.49%，1 086/1 519）。宁乡市和浏阳市是长沙市HFRS的高发地区，两地病例数占所有病例的68.47%（1 040/1 519），年均报告发病率分别为4.41/10万和2.42/10万。2011—2022年长沙市HFRS热点区域主要在宁乡市中东部乡镇以及浏阳市大山冲森林公园以东周边乡镇，冷点区域主要在市中心芙蓉区及其周边区域。核密度估计（kernel density estimation, KDE）显示高强度聚集区在宁乡市城郊街道及周边地区，中强度聚集区在浏阳市北盛镇周边地区和中心主城区的芙蓉、天心、开福、雨花四区交界地。时空扫描探测到一类聚集区发生在2014年8月1日—2020年6月30日，以宁乡市巷子口镇为中心、半径为55.60 km的22个乡镇。结论 长沙市HFRS疫情处于较高水平，存在明显的时空聚集性特征，但疫源地范围基本稳定。重点防控区域仍应以宁乡市、浏阳市等HFRS传统流行区为主，同时需兼顾市中心老城区。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 流行特征, 时空聚集性, 长沙市

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Changsha from 2011 to 2022 for evidences for prevention and control of this entity. Methods The case data on HFRS in Changsha area reported from 2011 to 2022 were retrieved from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyze the temporal, regional and population distribution of HFRS cases. Software ArcGIS 10.8 and SaTScan 10.1 were used to respectively analyze the spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal clustering of HFRS. Results A total of 1 519 case of HFRS, including 9 deaths, were reported in Changsha area from 2011 to 2022. The mortality was 0.01/100 000 population. There were two epidemic peaks in terms of temporal distribution, which occurred from April to June and from November to January of the following year. The ages of the cases were in population aged between 40 and 59 years (50.89%; 773/1 519). Farmers constituted the main occupational group (71.43%; 1 085/1 519). By gender distribution, males wre in the majority (71.49%; 1 086/1 519). Ningxiang and Liuyang were the higher prevalence areas of HFRS in Changsha, accounting for 68.47% (1 040/1 519) of all cases, with an average annual reported incidence rate was 4.41/100 000 and 2.42/100 000, respectively. The hotspot areas for HFRS in Changsha are between 2011 and 2022 were primarily distributed in the central and eastern towns of Ningxiang City, as well as the Liuyang area surrounding the east of Dashanchong Forest Park, while the coldspot areas were mainly centered around Furong District in the city center and its surrounding regions. The kernel density estimation (KDE) showed that the high-intensity clustering areas were located in the Chengjiao Subdistrict of Ningxiang City and its surrounding regions, while the medium-intensity clustering areas were distributed around Beisheng Town of Liuyang City and the junction area of four districts (Furong, Tianxin, Kaifu, and Yuhua) in the central main urban area. The spatiotemporal scan detected a Type Ⅰ clustering area occurring from August 1, 2014, to June 30, 2020, covering 22 townships with Xiangzikou Town of Ningxiang as the center and a radius of 55.60 km. Conclusion The incidence of HFRS in Changsha City still remains at a relatively high level, with obvious spatiotemporal distribution, yet the scope of the source of the epidemic is basically stable. The key prevention and control areas shall be Ningxiang and Liuyang, the traditional epidemic areas where HFRS occurs, and at the same time, the old city center should be taken into account. 

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Epidemic characteristics, Spatiotemporal clustering, Changsha City

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