热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2026, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 188-193.doi: 10.20199/j.issn.1672-2302.2026.03.011

• 实验研究 • 上一篇    

基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法的脊髓灰质炎疫苗相关病毒分子溯源分析

柴瑜1(), 陈伟2, 程晓东1, 苏颖1, 何佳丽1, 罗静3, 王斌冰1, 王志军2, 董子露3, 汪馨1, 董燕1, 徐庆华1()   

  1. 1 安徽省疾病预防控制中心， 安徽合肥 230601
    2 萧县疾病预防控制中心
    3 宿州市疾病预防控制中心
  • 收稿日期:2025-10-30 出版日期:2026-06-20 发布日期:2026-07-31
  • 通信作者: 徐庆华，E-mail: xqh1126@sina.com
  • 作者简介:柴瑜，男，硕士，副主任技师，研究方向：疫苗可预防疾病。E-mail: 53499638@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    安徽省卫生健康科研项目(AHWJ2024Aa20380)

Molecular tracing analysis of vaccine-associated polioviruses based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

CHAI Yu1(), CHEN Wei2, CHENG Xiaodong1, SU Ying1, HE Jiali1, LUO Jing3, WANG Binbing1, WANG Zhijun2, DONG Zilu3, WANG Xin1, DONG Yan1, XU Qinghua1()   

  1. 1 Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, Anhui Province, China
    2 Xiaoxian Center for Disease Control and Prevention
    3 Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Received:2025-10-30 Online:2026-06-20 Published:2026-07-31
  • Contact: XU Qinghua, E-mail: xqh1126@sina.com

RichHTML

1

PDF (PC)

20

摘要：

目的 计算脊髓灰质炎（简称脊灰）疫苗相关病毒（vaccine-associated poliovirus, PVa）最初起源时间，推断毒株来源。方法 对儿童粪便标本中分离出的Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型PVa，通过细胞培养和测序获取病毒VP1序列。再利用已知进化时间的Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型PVa的VP1编码区核酸序列，基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（Markov chain Monte Carlo, MCMC）模型分别计算两种型别PVa核酸平均进化速率，并据此推算PVa的最初起源时间。结果 在该儿童的粪便标本中检出PVa Ⅰ型2株、Ⅲ型4株，推算Ⅰ型PVa最初起源时间大约为2021年12月—2022年3月；Ⅲ型大约为2022年8—11月，均早于2023年2月28日，即该儿童接种二价口服脊髓灰质炎减毒活疫苗（oral poliovirus vaccine, OPV）的时间。该儿童密接人群粪便标本未检出PVa。结论 MCMC模型可为追溯PVa最初起源时间提供新思路，其科学性有待进一步验证。

关键词: 脊髓灰质炎疫苗相关病毒, 测序, 溯源, 马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模型

Abstract:

Objective To calculate the initial origin time of vaccine-associated poliovirus (PVa) and infer the source of the strain. Methods The viral VP1 sequence was obtained through cell culture and sequencing of type Ⅰ and type Ⅲ PVa isolated from a child’s fecal specimen. Then, based on VP1 region nucleotide sequences of type Ⅰ and Ⅲ poliovirus vaccine strains with documented evolutionary histories, the evolutionary rates for each type were calculated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model, from which the initial origin time of PVa was further estimated accordingly. Results Two strains of type Ⅰ PVa and four strains of type Ⅲ PVa were detected in the stool samples of this child. The initial origin time of type Ⅰ was from December 2021 to March 2022, and type Ⅲ, from August to November 2022, all of which were earlier than the date of administering the bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) on February 28, 2023. No PVa was detected in the stool samples of the close contacts of this child. Conclusion Although MCMC model can provide a novel idea for estimating the initial origin time of PVa, yet its scientific validity still requires further verifying.

Key words: Vaccine-associated poliovirus, Sequencing, Tracing, Markov Chain Monte Carlo model

中图分类号: