Abstract: Abstract: Objective   To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trend of prevalence of epidemic mumps (EM) in Xiamen City. Methods   The data involved in the incidence of EM in Xiamen area were retrieved from the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 2016 through 2021, and the incidence rate by gender, age and time were calculated and analyzed. The annual mean percentage change (APC) was used to evaluate the trend of EM prevalence, and GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the incidence in the next three years. Results   A total of 2 332 cases of EM were reported in Xiamen from 2016 to 2021, with the incidence fluctuating between 3.99/100 000 and 13.60/100 000. The average incidence rate was 9.20/100 000, and males had higher incidence than females (10.98/100 000 vs. 7.27/100 000). The infection affected most in population aged between one to fourteen years (1 976 cases, 84.73%), in whom 1 727 were students and children in childcare facilities. There were two peaks in the case distribution in different months, with the highest incidence in May and in November. The incidence rate tended to decrease by 21.61% per year (t=-3.49, P<0.05). The average error between the predicted value and the actual value predicted by GM (1, 1) model was 11.14%, and the model indicated further decrease from 2022 to 2024. Conclusion   The incidence of EM in Xiamen tends to decrease, yet still remains relatively higher than the prevalence level of whole province, which suggests that vaccination and behavioral intervention should be strengthened.

Key words: Epidemic mumps, Epidemiology, Grey model, Prediction, Xiamen City