Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology ›› 2025, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 199-204,210.doi: 10.20199/j.issn.1672-2302.2025.04.002
• SPECIAL TOPIC ON DENGUE FEVER PREVENTION AND CONTROL • Previous Articles Next Articles
FU Jialu1(), ZHENG Erda2(
), QI Yanbo2, WU Linbo3, HE Jibo2(
), YANG Rui3(
)
Received:
2025-06-30
Online:
2025-08-20
Published:
2025-09-19
Contact:
HE Jibo, E-mail: ynhejibo@163.com; YANG Rui, E-mail: jody877@163.com
CLC Number:
FU Jialu, ZHENG Erda, QI Yanbo, WU Linbo, HE Jibo, YANG Rui. Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of overseas imported dengue fever in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2023[J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2025, 23(4): 199-204,210.
Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX
URL: http://www.rdbzz.com/EN/10.20199/j.issn.1672-2302.2025.04.002
Table 1
The overseas imported dengue fever cases in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2023
年份 | 报告病例数(例) | 境外输入病例数(例) | 境外输入病例 构成比(%) |
---|---|---|---|
2005 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
2006 | 18 | 12 | 66.67 |
2007 | 7 | 6 | 85.71 |
2008 | 89 | 47 | 52.81 |
2009 | 36 | 19 | 52.78 |
2010 | 39 | 24 | 61.54 |
2011 | 34 | 26 | 76.47 |
2012 | 45 | 37 | 82.22 |
2013 | 1 610 | 155 | 9.63 |
2014 | 338 | 188 | 55.62 |
2015 | 2 166 | 646 | 29.82 |
2016 | 541 | 315 | 58.23 |
2017 | 3 556 | 1 621 | 45.58 |
2018 | 944 | 260 | 27.54 |
2019 | 6 914 | 1 438 | 20.80 |
2020 | 263 | 15 | 5.70 |
2021 | 14 | 4 | 28.57 |
2022 | 567 | 24 | 4.23 |
2023 | 13 749 | 1 192 | 8.67 |
合计 | 30 931 | 6 030 | 19.50 |
Table 2
Regional distribution of overseas imported dengue fever cases in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2023
州(市) | 境外输入病例数(例) | 县(市、区)(境外输入病例数) |
---|---|---|
德宏傣族景颇族自治州 | 2 610 | 瑞丽市(2 026例)、盈江县(290例)、陇川县(189例)、芒市(102例)、梁河县(3例) |
西双版纳傣族自治州 | 1 688 | 勐海县(1 225例)、景洪市(236例)、勐腊县(227例) |
临沧市 | 918 | 镇康县(468例)、耿马县(407例)、临翔区(29例)、沧源县(5例)、云县(4例)、双江县(4例)、凤庆县(1例) |
昆明市 | 589 | 官渡区(470例)、五华区(77例)、西山区(26例)、盘龙区(10例)、安宁市(5例)、呈贡区(1例) |
普洱市 | 88 | 孟连县(44例)、思茅区(24例)、澜沧县(11例)、墨江县(2例)、镇沅县(2例)、江城县(2例)、景东县(1例)、景谷县(1例)、西盟县(1例) |
保山市 | 79 | 腾冲市(59例)、施甸县(10例)、龙陵县(6例)、隆阳区(4例) |
红河哈尼族彝族自治州 | 19 | 蒙自市(6例)、河口县(6例)、开远市(4例)、弥勒市(3例) |
玉溪市 | 12 | 红塔区(6例)、江川区(1例)、通海县(1例)、华宁县(1例)、易门县(1例)、新平县(1例)、元江县(1例) |
曲靖市 | 9 | 麒麟区(4例)、罗平县(2例)、陆良县(1例)、师宗县(1例)、宣威市(1例) |
大理白族自治州 | 8 | 祥云县(4例)、大理市(3例)、弥渡县(1例) |
昭通市 | 4 | 昭阳区(2例)、永善县(1例)、镇雄县(1例) |
文山壮族苗族自治州 | 3 | 砚山县(2例)、文山市(1例) |
楚雄彝族自治州 | 2 | 楚雄市(2例) |
怒江傈僳族自治州 | 1 | 泸水市(1例) |
Table 3
Population distribution of overseas imported dengue fever cases in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2023
人群特征 | 境外输入登革热病例数(例) | 构成比(%) |
---|---|---|
性别 | ||
男性 | 3 477 | 57.66 |
女性 | 2 553 | 42.34 |
年龄(岁) | ||
0~9 | 353 | 5.85 |
10~19 | 606 | 10.05 |
20~29 | 1 535 | 25.46 |
30~39 | 1 444 | 23.95 |
40~49 | 1 084 | 17.98 |
50~59 | 641 | 10.63 |
≥60 | 367 | 6.09 |
职业 | ||
农民 | 2 575 | 42.70 |
商业服务人员 | 1 145 | 18.99 |
学生 | 524 | 8.69 |
工人及民工 | 382 | 6.33 |
家务及待业 | 378 | 6.27 |
散居儿童 | 196 | 3.25 |
干部及离退休人员 | 188 | 3.12 |
其他 | 484 | 8.03 |
不详 | 158 | 2.62 |
Table 4
SARIMA model selection table
SARIMA模型 | 平稳R2 | 正态化BIC | MAPE | Ljung-Box Q检验 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q值 | P值 | ||||
(1,0,1)(1,1,1)12 | 0.802 | 7.647 | 380.999 | 4.015 | 0.995 |
(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 | 0.796 | 7.644 | 339.480 | 6.428 | 0.972 |
(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12 | 0.800 | 7.629 | 359.341 | 7.203 | 0.952 |
(1,0,1)(1,0,0)12 | 0.698 | 7.614 | 262.746 | 10.087 | 0.814 |
(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12 | 0.714 | 7.585 | 287.397 | 7.816 | 0.899 |
[1] | 国家卫生健康委办公厅, 国家中医药局综合司. 关于印发麻疹等传染病诊疗方案(2024年版)的通知:国卫办医急函〔2024〕268号[A/OL]. (2024-07-19)[2025-06-29]. https://www.nhc.gov.cn/ylyjs/gzdt/202407/430f72d43b4c4d70b12f0edbbf9eaf94.shtml. |
[2] | 张荣兵, 洪劲, 田荣, 等. 2015—2021年云南省境外输入登革热和疟疾病例特征分析[J]. 预防医学, 2023, 35(2):141-143. |
[3] | 赵峥, 李昱, 牟笛, 等. 2016—2018年中国重点省份境外输入性登革热病例的时空分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41(11):1808-1812. |
[4] | 国家疾控局综合司, 国家卫生健康委办公厅. 关于印发登革热防控方案(2025年版)的通知:国疾控综传防发〔2015〕13号[A/OL].(2025-06-27)[2025-06-29]. https://www.ndcpa.gov.cn/jbkzzx/c100014/common/content/content_1938557342511960064.html. |
[5] | 杨建军, 冯燕, 梁舒, 等. 2010—2021年甘肃省手足口病监测分析及模型预测[J]. 疾病监测, 2024, 39(3):318-323. |
[6] | 高桂玲, 吕锡宏, 孙中兴. 基于SIRIMA模型的新冠肺炎疫情对猩红热流行影响的分析:以上海市松江区为例[J]. 热带病与寄生虫学, 2022, 20(6):301-306. |
[7] |
贾豫晨, 李宁, 郑尔达, 等. 基于ARIMA模型探讨新型冠状病毒感染防控措施对云南省登革热流行的影响[J]. 中国热带医学, 2024, 24(10):1173-1179.
doi: 10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2024.10.07 |
[8] | 杨慧欣, 赵晨皓, 雒静静, 等. 2011—2018年我国登革热疫情时间序列分析及空间自相关分析[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2019, 23(10):1250-1254. |
[9] | 孙梦彩, 张晓阳, 周权, 等. ARIMA模型在登革热高发城市发病预测中的应用[J]. 中国预防医学杂志, 2022, 23(11):840-844. |
[10] | 景盼姣, 赵娥, 孙高峰, 等. 2015年—2020年乌鲁木齐市急性心脑血管疾病死亡流行特征及时间序列预测研究[J]. 中国病案, 2023, 24(2):50-54. |
[11] | 郑磊, 翟倚文. 时间序列分析法在传染病发病率预测中的应用[J]. 海峡预防医学杂志, 2021, 27(3):99-101. |
[12] | Zaw W, Lin Z, Ko Ko J, et al. Dengue in Myanmar: Spatiotemporal epidemiology, association with climate and short-term prediction[J]. PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2023, 17(6):e0011331. |
[13] |
曾小平, 陈琴, 林春燕. 海口市2010—2020年输入性登革热流行病学特征[J]. 中国热带医学, 2021, 21(9):828-832.
doi: 10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2021.09.03 |
[14] |
姜进勇, 郭晓芳, 唐烨榕, 等. 云南省2004—2014年输入性登革热病例监测与防控对策分析[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2016, 27(1):5-8.
doi: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.4692.2016.01.002 |
[15] |
李杨思琪, 李曼, 贾文爽, 等. 云南省埃及伊蚊生态习性研究进展[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2021, 32(2):247-253.
doi: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2021.02.026 |
[16] | 陈莉华, 念鹏英, 沈秀莲, 等. 云南省2013—2022年登革热流行趋势及暴发疫情特征分析[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2024, 35(1):63-68,73. |
[17] | 岳玉娟, 伦辛畅, 董朝良. 2005—2023年中国输入性登革热流行特征分析[J]. 热带病与寄生虫学, 2024, 22(4):198-203,238. |
[18] |
范建华, 高阳, 朱进, 等. 云南省西双版纳州2006—2020年登革热流行特征及媒介伊蚊监测分析[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2022, 33(2):245-251,304.
doi: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2022.02.015 |
[19] |
伦辛畅, 杨锐, 吴海霞, 等. 2005—2019年云南省缅甸登革热输入病例流行特征分析[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2022, 33(1):108-113.
doi: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2022.01.020 |
[20] | 王明雯, 侯雨, 毛彤瑶, 等. 自回归滑动平均混合模型在辽宁省其他感染性腹泻发病预测中的应用[J]. 疾病监测, 2021, 36(1):69-73. |
[21] | 张顺先, 邱琪, 王英. 我国手足口病重症患者数自回归移动平均模型预测研究[J]. 病毒学报, 2017, 33(1):77-81. |
[22] | 刘建昭, 刘天, 姚梦雷, 等. 乘积季节ARIMA模型在乙肝发病率预测中的运用[J]. 医学动物防制, 2018, 34(7):640-643. |
[23] | 谭恩丽, 侯慧玉, 包海荣, 等. 采用自回归移动平均模型预测中国流感病例数[J]. 病毒学报, 2017, 33(5):699-705. |
[1] | CHEN Qin, WU Li’nan, LAI Shifeng, JIANG Mingming, LIU Wenhui. Epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in Guangzhou City from 2014 to 2023 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2025, 23(4): 205-210. |
[2] | YAN Ke, FENG Jing, ZHOU Rong, DU Xunbo, LIU Hui, WANG Yao. Epidemiological characteristics and temporal trend of dengue fever in Chengdu City, 2011-2023 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2025, 23(4): 211-215. |
[3] | WAN Jia, NIU Cong, WANG Ying, WANG Meng, LÜ Ziquan, ZHANG Zhen, LU Jianhua, FENG Tiejian, KONG Dongfeng. Epidemiological investigation and response of two dengue fever outbreaks at construction sites in Shenzhen City [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2025, 23(4): 216-221,234. |
[4] | YUAN Rui, LI Ke, ZHANG Lele, YU Binbin, YANG Xiangdong, WANG peng, ZHANG Zhijie. Application of spatial zero-inflated Poisson model in spatial analysis of Brucellosis in Yunnan Province [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2025, 23(3): 160-164,188. |
[5] | LI Zeying, LIN Yan, JIA Yuchen, HUANG Tian, ZHENG Erda, SHENG Xiulian, CHEN Lihua, HE Jibo. Epidemiological characteristics and risk factors of reinfection cases of hand, foot and mouth disease in Yunnan Province, 2020-2024 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2025, 23(2): 70-74,80. |
[6] | ZHU Hong, ZHAO Qinglong, XU Changxi, PAN Yang, ZHU Linying, WU Hao, LI Meina. Analysis of the reported incidence of notifiable diseases in Jilin Province from 2017 to 2023 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(6): 353-357. |
[7] | ZHANG Juan, ZHOU Xiaomei, TAO Hong, LI Yanzhong, YANG Jingjing, WANG Tingting, CHEN Yishan, XIANG Yibin. Monitoring and analysis of food-borne parasites in freshwater products in Yunnan Province from 2017 to 2022 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(5): 284-288. |
[8] | YUE Yujuan, LUN Xinchang, DONG Chaoliang. Epidemiological characteristics of imported dengue fever in China from 2005 to 2023 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(4): 198-203. |
[9] | XIAO Hansen, TU Taotian, WANG Zheng, ZHANG Ying, WEI Jing, JI Hengqing. Analysis on the surveillance results of dengue vector Aedes in Chongqing area from 2019 to 2023 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(4): 204-207. |
[10] | GAO Guiling, WANG Chao, YAO Chunxia. Seasonal characteristics of dengue fever in China: Analysis based on concentration and circular distribution approaches [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(4): 208-211. |
[11] | WANG Changtai, YANG Huiqin, JIN Kanghong, LENG Xingyu, ZHANG Zhenhua, ZHANG Fuchun. Clinical characteristics of acute kidney injury in elderly patients with dengue fever [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(4): 212-216. |
[12] | HE Jibo, NIAN Pengying, ZHENG Erda, ZHANG Yanli, CHEN Lihua. Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of public health emergencies of communicable diseases in the cross border area of Yunnan Province, 2018-2022 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(4): 217-222. |
[13] | TANG Yerong, ZHOU Hongning, LI Jinghua, XIAO Jianpeng. Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in Jinghong City, China-Myanmar border region by spatial-temporal multicomponent model [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(2): 83-88. |
[14] | CAI Xuan, YANG Yaming, LI Benfu, PENG Jia, ZI Jinrong, WU Fangwei. Analysis on epidemic situation of amebic dysentery in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2020 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2024, 22(1): 12-15. |
[15] | LIU Ziyan, DAI Zhihui, ZHAN Zhifei, YANG Hao, SUN Qianlai, WANG Juan, BU Zheni, HE Fangling, CHEN Shengbao, LIU Rongjiao, LIN Huijun, LUO Kaiwei. Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in Hunan Province, 2017-2022 [J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2023, 21(5): 245-249. |
Viewed | ||||||
Full text |
|
|||||
Abstract |
|
|||||