Predicting the infection status and epidemic trend of SARS-CoV-2 using transmission dynamics model based on Longgang District of Shenzhen City

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-2302.2023.06.008

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective To predict and analyze the epidemic situation of COVID-19 for reference to improve the prevention and control measures for this pandemic. Methods Daily data of COVID-19 reported in Longgang District of Shenzhen City in December 2022 were collected. A multi-group transmission dynamics model with comprehensive consideration of the vaccination and age composition was used to establish a simulation model to estimate the infection rate, peak time of infection and following trend of the pandemic in Longgang District. Results The calculation results and curve fitting results of multiple transmission dynamic models showed that the model fitted the actual data well (R²=0.916, P<0.001). The prediction results revealed that the effective regeneration number (R_eff) was 7.13 for this pandemic, and the cumulative infection rate was 95.46% for the population. The daily peak infection was 245 700 cases, and 74.95% of the population exhibited symptoms after infection. The daily peak incidence was 158 200 cases. The infection rate of the population in all 11 communities in Longgang District exceeded 90%, and the highest R_eff (10.20) was seen in Nanwan community, followed by Pinghu community (9.60). Conclusion The multiple group transmission dynamics model can better fit and predict the infection status and peak time of COVID-19 in Longgang District, which can provide a reference for the decision-making in prevention and control of COVID-19 pandemic.

Key words: COVID-19, Dynamics model, Infection rate, Epidemic trend

CLC Number:

R511，R181

YU Guolong, CHEN Siting, LIU Feng, LIN Haiduan, YE Bili, XIE Xianqing, JIN Yujuan. Predicting the infection status and epidemic trend of SARS-CoV-2 using transmission dynamics model based on Longgang District of Shenzhen City[J]. Journal of Tropical Diseases and Parasitology, 2023, 21(6): 338-343.

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References 22

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年龄（岁）	未接种人数	接种但尚未完成接种人数	完成基础免疫但未完成加强免疫人数	完成加强免疫人数
0~2	139 445	0	0	0
3~6	0	5 120	205 784	0
7~11	0	0	217 334	0
12~14	0	0	93 649	0
15~17	0	0	73 377	0
18~59	0	0	412 543	2 620 464
60~69	8 833	4 461	1 764	136 509
70~79	0	114	6 641	35 884
≥ 80	3 731	2 402	1 947	6 397

年龄（岁）	0~2	3~6	7~11	12~14	15~17	18~59	60~69	70~79	≥80
0~2	0.139 5	0.308 6	0.322 1	0.209 2	0.246 5	5.082 9	0.343 9	0.158 3	0.073 9
3~6	0.136 2	5.009 1	0.345 3	0.221 5	0.265 3	5.203 3	0.333 7	0.169 1	0.075 8
7~11	0.129 6	0.313 2	7.564 2	3.258 3	0.530 2	5.414 8	0.323 5	0.187 1	0.081 2
12~14	0.115 6	0.277 1	4.599 5	3.533 3	2.986 3	5.776 5	0.307 2	0.202 4	0.084 7
15~17	0.107 7	0.261 2	0.598 5	2.481 1	5.096 0	7.959 4	0.302 6	0.204 6	0.091 2
18~59	0.143 9	0.331 1	0.389 4	0.301 7	0.514 5	10.182 9	0.580 4	0.238 9	0.103 3
60~69	0.125 7	0.278 6	0.299 3	0.208 4	0.260 6	6.847 9	1.230 0	0.311 1	0.205 3
70~79	0.094 8	0.228 6	0.280 6	0.220 1	0.283 4	4.697 3	0.453 9	0.785 5	0.250 7
≥ 80	0.086 3	0.200 8	0.239 1	0.183 7	0.256 7	4.005 2	0.556 4	0.453 4	0.619 1

参数	定义	单位	取值	参数来源
ω	潜伏期系数	d^-1	1/3	文献[10-11]
ω'	潜隐期系数	d^-1	1/3	文献[12]
ω''	症状前到出现症状时间系数	d^-1	1/2	文献[5,8]
k	无症状感染者相对传染性系数	1	1	文献[5,8]
k'	症状前感染相对传染性系数	1	1	文献[5,8]
p	无症状感染者比例	1	-	文献[5,8]
γ	有症状感染者移出率系数	d^-1	1/5	文献[5,8]
γ'	无症状感染者移出率系数	d^-1	1/7	文献[5,8]

街道	曲线拟合R²	曲线拟合P值	R_eff
平湖	0.867	<0.001	9.60
布吉	0.932	<0.001	6.73
吉华	0.868	<0.001	7.98
南湾	0.856	<0.001	10.20
坂田	0.885	<0.001	6.50
横岗	0.878	<0.001	6.44
园山	0.848	<0.001	6.32
龙岗	0.859	<0.001	7.23
龙城	0.918	<0.001	7.87
宝龙	0.829	<0.001	7.78
坪地	0.910	<0.001	5.53

地区	累计感染数（万例）	累计感染率（%）	累计发病数（万例）	累计罹患率（%）	持续时间（日）	感染高峰值（万例）	发病高峰值（万例）	感染高峰日	发病高峰日
平湖	38.79	97.84	29.15	73.43	113	3.21	1.95	2023/1/3	2023/1/7
布吉	41.97	94.13	31.43	70.37	136	2.36	1.56	2023/1/7	2023/1/12
吉华	22.78	95.70	17.08	71.59	120	1.52	0.97	2023/1/6	2023/1/10
南湾	41.06	98.85	30.46	73.25	108	3.47	2.06	2022/12/27	2022/12/31
坂田	51.03	95.16	38.43	71.57	144	2.98	1.99	2023/1/14	2023/1/18
横岗	26.97	94.84	20.26	71.10	144	1.49	1.01	2023/1/21	2023/1/25
园山	23.75	96.06	17.87	72.09	135	1.27	0.88	2023/1/15	2023/1/19
龙岗	33.50	95.38	25.07	71.30	135	2.05	1.35	2023/1/13	2023/1/17
龙城	47.21	95.15	35.30	71.06	135	3.08	1.97	2023/1/11	2023/1/15
宝龙	31.72	96.82	23.79	72.49	121	2.13	1.38	2023/1/6	2023/1/10
坪地	20.81	95.23	15.68	71.60	152	1.01	0.70	2023/1/27	2023/1/31
合计	379.59	95.46	284.52	71.55	159	24.57	15.82	2023/1/10	2023/1/14