关键词: Logistic微分方程, 数学模型, 结核病, 暴发

Abstract: Objective To apply the logistic differential equation (LDE) model to predicting the spread of tuberculosis for a new method in early prevention and control of tuberculosis. Methods The principle of LDE model, calculation of the critical points at accelerated epidemic, advantages and disadvantages were analyzed, and simulation investigation was per- formed on the data reported in Xiamen City basis. Results Tuberculosis was highly prevalent in Xiamen from 2005 to 2018, typically characterized by wave in winter and spring seasons. LDE model resulted in well fitting to the prevalence. Accelera- tion of the epidemic was identified in the first or the second month of the previous years. Conclusion LDE model can better reflect the acceleration trend and initiation of warning of tuberculosis prevalence in early stage as well as the changing point of the epidemic, which should be a better tool for health workers in prevention, control and warning of tuberculosis on grass- root levels.

Key words: Logistic differential equation model, Mathematical model, Tuberculosis, Outbreak