热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2020, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 29-32.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

常用统计预测模型及其在结核病疫情预测中的应用

王明斋1 , 李佳2 , 芮佳2 , 王瑶2 , 杨蒙2 , 王琦琦3 , 陈田木2 , 郑蓉蓉1∗   

  1. 1. 厦门市疾病预防控制中心,厦门 361021; 2. 分子疫苗学和分子诊断学国家重点实验室,厦门大学公共卫生学院; 3. 中国疾病预防控制中心
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-27 出版日期:2020-03-10 发布日期:2020-03-29
  • 通信作者: ∗通讯作者,郑蓉蓉,E-mail:rong3018@ 163. com
  • 作者简介:王明斋,男,硕士,主管医师,研究方向:传染病预防控制和突发事件卫生应急。 E-mail:32639937@ qq. com
  • 基金资助:
    厦门市科技计划指导性项目(2010S0658);厦门大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2019Y0805)

Commonly used statistical predictive models and their application in tuberculosis prediction

WANG Ming- zhai1 , LI Jia2 , RUI Jia2 , WANG Yao2 , YANG Meng2 , WANG Qi - qi3 , CHEN Tian -mu2 , ZHENG Rong-rong1∗   

  1. 1. Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen 361021, China; 2. State key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University; 3. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Received:2019-11-27 Online:2020-03-10 Published:2020-03-29
  • Contact: ∗ Corresponding author, E-mail:rong3018@ 163. com

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摘要： 目的 选择简便、可靠的统计预测模型,为传染病疫情预测工作提供参考。 方法 对常见统计预测模型 的原理、拟合优度检验与模型筛选进行介绍,并以厦门市结核病疫情为例开展模型应用。 结果 模型与数据拟合结果显示,11 种模型均有统计学意义(P<0. 05)。 其中 R2 最大为 Cubic 模型,其次为 Quadratic 模型和 Logarithmic 模型。 Quadratic 模型预测 2019 年 7~ 12 月厦门市报告发病数分别为 191(95% CI: 124-259)、192(95% CI: 124-260)、193 (95% CI:125-261)、194(95% CI: 126-262)、195(95% CI: 127-263)和 196(95% CI: 128-264)。 结论 常见统计模型可以用于厦门市结核病发病趋势预测,厦门市短期内报告病例数将略有上升趋势。

关键词: 数学模型, 结核病, 预测

Abstract: Objective To assess the predictive models commonly used in statistics, and determine the optimal model (s) for predicting the trend of tuberculosis. Methods Commonly used statistical predictive models were described concerning the principles, goodness of fit test and model selection, and applied to predicting the trend of tuberculosis in Xiamen city for choice of the best one(s) in following prevention and control of the epidemics. Results The fitting results into the model and data showed that 11 models had statistical significance (P<0. 05). In the 11 models, the largest R2 model was Cubic, followed by the Quadratic and Logarithmic. Quadratic model was used, and revealed 191 (95% CI: 124-259), 192 (95% CI: 124-260), 193 (95% CI: 125-261), 194 (95% CI: 126-262) and 195 (95% CI: 127-263) and 196 cases of tuberculosis (95% CI: 128-264), respectively, reported in Xiamen area from July to December of 2019. Conclusion The commonly used statistical model can be used to predict the incidence trend of tuberculosis in Xiamen area, and the number of reported cases in Xiamen tends to slightly increase in the short term.

Key words: Mathematical model, Tuberculosis, Prediction

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