Abstract:

【Abstract】 Objective  To assess the significance of applying autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model to predicting the trend of severe hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) for evidences to rationally allocate human, financial and material resources in a medical institution. Methods  The monthly severe HFMD cases obtained from 2010 to 2013 were fitted in SPSS(version 16.0), and the data collected in 2014 were used to verify the previously established ARIMA model by which it was used to predict the prevalence trend of HFMD in 2015. Results  The model ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,1,0)12 were established based on the test of parameters and goodness of fit as well as sequence of white-noise residuals, in which the normalized BIC was defined as 6.346, stationary R square as 0.708, and root mean square error as 1.576. LB test for residuals sequence as defined as white noise sequence. Conclusion  ARIMA model can well predict the prevalence trend of severe HFMD, and may supply evidences for medical institutions in management of this disease. However, the effectiveness of this model remains yet to be optimized on continuous accumulation of the original data and other related data basis.

Key words: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD), Severe patient, Prediction, Time series analysis