热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2016, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (3): 155-159.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-2302.2016.03.009

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2012~2013年广州市心血管病逐日死亡数与气象因子的时间序列分析

董航，李晓宁，刘华章，林国桢，李燕，李科   

  1. 510440广州市，广州市疾病预防控制中心
  • 出版日期:2016-09-10 发布日期:2016-09-30
  • 基金资助:

    广州市医药卫生科技项目（20141A010053）

Time series study on the association of daily meteorological factors with mortality of cardiovascular disease in Guangzhou from 2012 to 2013

Dong Hang, Li Xiaoning, Liu Huazhang, Lin Guozhen, Li Yan, LiI Ke   

  1. Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
  • Online:2016-09-10 Published:2016-09-30

PDF (PC)

953

被引次数

3

摘要： 目的  分析广州市心血管逐日死亡数与气象因子关系，为政府制定预防干预措施及医疗气象的预测及指导提供科学依据。 方法  根据广州市2012年1月1日至2013年12月31日每日居民心血管病死亡资料和同期气相指标，采用分布滞后非线性模型，在控制长期趋势、季节趋势和其他混杂因素后，研究气象因素包括日平均气压、气温( 日最高、日平均、日最低气温)、日平均相对湿度、日降雨量、日平均风速、日照时长与心血管病逐日死亡数死亡数之间的关系。 结果  广州市心血管病逐日死亡数近年有所增加，其中日均气压、气温、风速、湿度、降雨量、日照等气象因素均与心血管逐日死亡数相关（均P<0.05），日平均气压和日平均风速呈正相关（r>0），气温（日最高、日平均、日最低气温）、日平均相对湿度、降雨量和日照时长呈负相关（r<0）。平均气压为1019hPa，滞后为30天时，RR值最大为1.051（95%CI：1.026~1.076）；平均气温为6℃，滞后为6-8天时，RR值最大为1.036 (95%CI：1.024~1.048)。 结论  我市应加强对心血管患者的宣传教育，气象因素对心血管死亡存在滞后性，因此对于气候变化应做好提前预防。

关键词: 心血管病, 逐日死亡数, 气象因子, 时间序列

Abstract:

Objective To investigate the association of daily meteorological factors with mortality of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Guangzhou city in order to provide scientific evidence for official authorities in medical meteorological forecast and in planning prevention and intervention strategies. Methods According to the daily CVD mortality statistics and meteorological data obtained from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2013 in Guangzhou city, we investigated the relationship between daily meteorological factors, including daily mean atmosphere pressure, temperature(mean, maximal and minimal), relative humidity, rainfall, mean wind velocity and sunshine time, and mortality of CVD by using a distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM) on ruling out the confounding factors basis. Results The daily deaths from CVD in Guangzhou city tended to increase in the past years, and the death was associated with daily mean atmosphere pressure, temperature, wind velocity, humidity, rainfall and sunshine time(all P<0.05). Daily mean air pressure was positively correlated with wind velocity(r>0), yet the temperature (mean, maximal and minimal), relative humidity and rainfall were negatively related to sunshine(r<0). Maximum RR was 1.051(95%CI:1.026-1.076) at the mean pressure being 1019hPa and lagged days of 30, and maximum RR, 1.036 (95%CI:1.024-1.048) at mean temperature being 6℃and lagged day of 6 to 8. Conclusion Health education is recommended in the residents in Guangzhou city and preventive measures to challenge the climate changes are necessary, because meteorological factors may lead to lagged effects on the mortality of cardiovascular disease.

Key words: Cardiovascular disease, Daily deaths, Meteorological factors, Time series