热带病与寄生虫学

热带病与寄生虫学 ›› 2022, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (5): 260-263.

• 防治研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

综合运用集中度与圆形分布法分析124例肾综合征出血热季节性分布特征

余晚凤1，陶际春1，范冬青1，卜祥祥1，孙恩涛1，杨进孙2，王文节2   

  1. 1. 皖南医学院检验学院卫生检验与检疫学教研室，安徽 芜湖 241002
    2. 皖南医学院第一附属医院感染性疾病科
  • 收稿日期:2022-04-21 出版日期:2022-10-20 发布日期:2022-11-16
  • 通信作者: 孙恩涛，E-mail：asdentao@126.com；杨进孙，E-mail：yangjinsun999999@163.com
  • 作者简介:余晚凤，女，本科，研究方向：感染性疾病研究。E-mail：3022119815@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（31870352）；皖南医学院2019年青年优秀人才资助项目（Wyqnyx201902）；国家级大学生创新创业项目（202110368004）；2020皖南医学院中青年科研基金重点项目（WK2020ZF08）

Seasonal distribution characteristics of 124 cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome comprehensively analyzed by concentration ratio and circular distribution

YU Wan-feng1, TAO Ji-chun1, FAN Dong-qing1, BU Xiang-xiang1, SUN En-tao2, YANG Jin-sun2, WANG Wen-jie2   

  1. 1. Department of Hygiene Inspection and Quarantine, School of Laboratory Medicine, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu 241002, Anhui Province, China;
    2. Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College
  • Received:2022-04-21 Online:2022-10-20 Published:2022-11-16

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摘要： 目的 探究肾综合征出血热（hemorrhagic fever of renal syndrome, HFRS）的流行病学特征，分析其季节分布特征，为该病的防治提供参考依据。方法 回顾性分析皖南医学院第一附属医院2010年7月—2020年9月收治的HFRS实验室确诊病例，联合运用集中度及圆形分布法进行发病时间的季节性聚集强弱分析。结果 2010—2020年HFRS病例集中度M=0.42，表明HFRS发病高峰期有一定的季节性；圆形分布法分析结果显示，HFRS患者发病时间呈双峰分布，春夏季（主高峰）及秋冬季（次高峰）发病高峰日分别为5月15日和1月7日，高峰期分别为4月4日—6月25日和12月3日—次年2月12日。通过Watson-Williams检验分析HFRS男性、女性病例高峰日及高峰期差异，结果显示春秋季（3—8月）（F=3.28，P>0.05）和秋冬季（9月—次年2月）（F=0.069，P>0.05）高峰日及高峰期差异均无统计学意义。结论 集中度和圆形分布法具有定量以及精确计算实际发病高峰日及高峰区间的优势。皖南医学院第一附属医院2010—2020年124例HFRS病例发病时间具有一定季节性，流行趋势呈主-次高峰双峰型，4—6月为主高峰，12月—次年2月为次高峰。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 季节性, 集中度, 圆形分布

Abstract: Objective  To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS) and analyze the seasonal distribution characteristics, so as to provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of this condition. Methods  Retrospective analysis was performed in laboratory confirmed cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wannan Medical College between July 2010 and September 2020. Concentration degree and circular distribution method were used to analyze the seasonal clustering strength of onset time. Results  The concentration of HFRS cases from 2010 to 2020 was M=0.54, indicating that the peak of HFRS was in seasonal fashion. The results of circular distribution analysis showed that the onset time of HFRS patients presented a bimodal distribution. The peak days of the total cases in spring and summer (main peak) as well as autumn and winter (second peak) were May 15 and January 7, respectively, and the peak days were April 4 to June 25 and December 3 to February 12 of the following year, respectively. The Watson-Williams test was used to analyze the differences of peak days and peak periods between male and female HFRS cases. The results showed that there was no significant difference in peak days and peak periods between spring and autumn (March-August) (F=3.28, P>0.05) and autumn and winter (September to February of the following year) (F=0.069, P>0.05). That is, there is no difference in the peak day and peak of HFRS between male and female case groups. Conclusion  The concentration degree and circular distribution method are advantageous to quantitatively and accurately calculating the actual peak day and peak interval of HFRS. The incidence time of 124 HFRS cases reported in our hospital was in seasonal fashion between 2010 and 2020, and the epidemic trend showed a double-peak type of main and sub-peak, with the main peak from April to June. The second peak was from December to February of following year. 

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Seasonality, Concentration ratio, Circular distribution

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